2016 Q3 Research Reveals Pace of Remodeling Slows

by Fred Miller

The September 2016 Remodeling Business Pulse (RBP) survey showed a continuation of growth in the industry, but at a slower pace. The overall current business rating of 5.81 was in the growth area (above 5 indicates growth), but was directionally down from that measured in the June survey.

Only 20% of remodelers see declines currently versus 54% seeing growth. The sub-components of current conditions all showed directional declines in September. The strongest of the changes was for ‘Number of inquiries’ which fell 3.5%. ‘Value of jobs sold’ was next in strength of decline at 2.8%. ‘Conversion from bids to jobs’ remained the weakest measure but fell by the smallest percentage at -0.7%. The outlook for business three months from now was at 5.62, a directional decline from last year’s 5.79. A majority (51%) of remodelers are expecting growth, while a smaller group (19%) expects some level of decline. The balance (30%), see sales being about where they were last year. While still positive, those seeing growth are 2.7 times those seeing declines in this wave while the same ratio was stronger at 3.5 times last year.

Remodelers were asked about what is driving growth.

‘Postponed projects’ (63%) remained the top driver and it was up slightly from last quarter.

Remaining the number two driver, ‘home prices improving’ was 59%, somewhat higher than June. ‘Economic growth’ moved up to the number three driver at 41% a very small growth over the prior quarter. ‘Low interest rates’ made it into the top 4 for the first time at 38%, up meaningfully from June’s level of 33%. Many comments were made regarding the potential impact of this year’s presidential election. The uncertainty of the outcome has many remodelers nervous. A NARI Member in Massachusetts capture the overall sentiment well by saying, “Optimistic, as long as we see stability after the election.”

Survey Methodology
This study is conducted by Consumer Specialists for the National Association of the Remodeling Industry (NARI). The survey was done online with 138 NARI members who volunteered to be part of an ongoing research panel. Conducted from September 12-21, 2016, the study incorporates a series of questions on current and future business conditions. Respondents provide input on both current and future conditions compared to the previous year and the strength of that change. Current business ratings are compared with the prior quarterly study. ‘Outlook for 3 months out,’ is compared to the results from the same time the prior year to compensate for strong seasonal effects.

The next wave of this study is scheduled for December 2016 with results published in January 2017.

About the Author
Consumer Specialists is a research and marketing consulting firm with a focus on the building products industry. Questions can be directed to Fred Miller of Consumer Specialists at 901.757.5865 or Fred@consumerspecialists.com

| 10/11/2016 12:00:00 AM | 1 comments
Add Blogs to RSS FeedAdd Blogs to RSS Feed

Recent posts

No recent posts

Post archive

June 2022(2)
May 2022(2)
April 2022(2)
March 2022(3)
February 2022(1)
January 2022(5)
October 2021(2)
August 2021(3)
July 2021(1)
June 2021(2)
May 2021(1)
March 2021(2)
February 2021(1)
December 2020(1)
November 2020(2)
October 2020(2)
September 2020(3)
July 2020(3)
May 2020(2)
March 2020(2)
January 2020(2)
November 2019(1)
October 2019(4)
September 2019(3)
August 2019(3)
July 2019(5)
June 2019(3)
May 2019(5)
February 2019(3)
January 2019(3)
December 2018(1)
November 2018(3)
October 2018(2)
September 2018(3)
August 2018(3)
July 2018(4)
June 2018(6)
May 2018(3)
April 2018(2)
March 2018(3)
February 2018(1)
January 2018(1)
November 2017(4)
October 2017(5)
September 2017(6)
August 2017(4)
July 2017(2)
June 2017(2)
May 2017(4)
April 2017(6)
March 2017(3)
February 2017(6)
January 2017(6)
December 2016(3)
November 2016(4)
October 2016(8)
September 2016(5)
August 2016(3)
June 2016(3)
May 2016(5)
April 2016(4)
March 2016(5)
February 2016(4)
January 2016(4)
December 2015(3)
November 2015(4)
October 2015(9)
August 2015(4)
July 2015(3)
June 2015(7)
May 2015(2)
April 2015(5)
March 2015(9)
February 2015(6)
January 2015(7)
December 2014(2)
November 2014(7)
October 2014(5)
September 2014(3)
August 2014(5)
July 2014(6)
June 2014(7)
May 2014(3)
April 2014(5)
March 2014(8)
February 2014(7)
January 2014(7)
December 2013(6)
November 2013(8)
October 2013(5)
September 2013(4)
August 2013(4)
July 2013(6)
June 2013(8)
May 2013(8)
April 2013(15)
March 2013(6)
February 2013(11)
January 2013(8)
December 2012(6)
November 2012(7)
October 2012(20)
September 2012(14)
August 2012(6)
March 2012(4)
January 2012(1)
April 2011(2)